泛民主派的第二梯隊上位有何難?

如果李柱銘、楊森及單仲諧不想再當議員,大可以排在在比例代表制的第二位,在上一次選舉時我提到,為什麼新界西的何俊仁不可以排在張賢登後面?如此一來, 則到今天民主黨已有一批新人在立法會,不用次次選舉內爭上位。民主黨思路一向太泛道德主義,太直是也!政治有原則亦要變通,在不變中求變,主動改寫公式化 的行為模式。泛民的泛道德主義包服太重,竟然支持全面禁煙,而想不出如何兩全其美的方法?何也,因為泛道德主義中原則上反對吸煙,因此民主黨便死跟,明知 一定會得失部份選民,又不會增加不吸煙的選民的支持度。如此想法,下一步豈不是要禁酒、禁色、禁粗言穢語?我不吸煙但反對禁煙的,一刀切是僵化的非黑即白 思維,原則有時很動聽,但卻對改善現實問題無幫助。政治除了原則亦是要解決生活中的大小問題,一個好的政客知道什麼時侯原則、什麼時侯可以有彎轉,死守不 死守原則視乎可不可以達到政治目標而定。甘地相當有原則,但是和英國人談判還是相當有彈性的,而且有一些出人意表的創意,團結工會亦是以它的策略打贏了波 共。政客要向選民負責,不可以原則大過天,什麼事都寸步不讓,其實如果民主黨不是以泛道德主義為帥,反而是功利和有彈性一點,未必一定輸給民建聯。公平的 遊戲有公平的玩法,不公平的遊戲有不公平的玩法,唯一是要玩出成績來。

Obama will win the US election

For the coming presidential election in USA, I am making this prediction maybe in the fashion of ‘hindsight’ that Obama would likely win the coming election. The reason is likely that Republican not fully united behind his back due to ideological difference, that is given the Democrat would united behind Obama in the first place. (My feeling, however, it is easier for Hilliary to join Obama than other Republican presidential Primary candidate to join Mc. Cain). For Republican, the question is whether to vote just because of his party; For Democrat, the question is who is the best candidate to run. Another factor is either Clinton Hilary or Obama would felt new compare to Mc. Cain, which has ran for president for several times. One is female another is African American while Mc. Cain is ‘just another Republican candidate’. He can win unless he is giving the electorate a feeling that he is ‘RADICALLY’ different from Bush, but how can he still be a Republican while remain ideological coherent? So Mc. Cain face a tougher battle than either Hillary Clinton and Obama.
An interest coincidence is that in the first of series 24, an Black America is running and elected president!

(2008/11/5: My prediction is accurate, Obama win by a landslide in electorate college, 8% in popular votes. )